Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
